Markets Outlook
One September Day Years, they will come and go.Sometimes the tears will flow.Some of my memories will fade,But I’ll always remember that one September day.I used to reminisce‘Cause I thought that love was bliss.How did they know it would go astray?It began, and it ended on one September day.(Nina Simone, One September Day) Reflecting on […]
US Election – Here we go again
After a relatively predictable election here in the UK, where Labour surprised only by its margin of victory, rather than the victory itself; the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is looking the most compelling for years. The era of being comfortable with whether a Democrat or a Republican President was residing in the Oval Office seems […]
Markets summer slip
What follows is a re-print of a note we wrote back in early August following a sharp period of volatility in markets. As the US Federal Reserve became more relaxed talking about falling inflation and the likelihood of cutting interest rates in the wake of a poor jobs report, the Bank of Japan surprised with […]
Summary
This quarter we saw the first interest rate cut from a G7 central bank with the Central Bank of Canada cutting rates by 0.25% during early June, this was swiftly followed by the ECB, which made its well-flagged cut at its most recent meeting. The Bank of England bides its time for now, however the […]
Summer – Where is the love?
Summer should be a time for positive moods to flow. The evenings are light, the central heating goes off as the temperature outside goes up, the beaches fill with eager sunworshippers and conversations about summer holidays abound. Glastonbury, the Euros, the Olympics are all still mostly ahead of us… Instead, market sentiment can be best […]
Things can only get better
In this year of elections, the UK will have made its choice by the time many of you will have found the time to read these pages. At the time of writing, the pollsters and bookmakers are predicting a seismic shift in our political landscape with a convincing Labour victory set to follow, so unless […]
It’s a team game
There are decades of academic theory devoted to the science of portfolio construction, Fama and French, Harry Markowitz, CAPM, efficient frontiers and more! You’ll be relieved to know that I will fall asleep writing about it before putting you to sleep reading it. And you know what; a wholly scientific approach just never works. The […]
Summary
‘Not yet, but really quite soon’, was the message from the West’s major central banks as they held interest rates for now, but clearly flagged their intention to start cutting rates sooner rather than later. The exact timing and pace of interest rate cuts is a slight variable, but rate cuts starting this coming quarter […]
Market Outlook
Spring – A time for optimism? As the blossom finally dares to start showing its face after a spring that feels littered with the longest of false dawns, the first rays of the sun’s warmth help to lift our spirits as we look forward to a long summer ahead. With inflation falling, central banks flagging […]
Governments – Running the risk of a red card?
As the Times Square clock was ticking down to the end of the 1980’s, another clock, newly installed a mile away on the corner of Sixth Avenue and 42nd Street shone into light, its 306 bulbs illuminating passers-by that the US national debt was nearing $3tn. Several locations and new digits later, according to the […]