Global growth is slowing but risk of recession remains low for now.
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As we finally reached the Brexit denouement (or at least thought we had!) the economy has taken a turn for the worse.
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US economic growth data for the final quarter of 2018 showed an annual rate of 2.6%, down on the 3.4% notched up in the previous three months but still pretty solid.
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Macroeconomic data for Europe continues to be pretty dire. GDP growth was only 0.2% in the final quarter of last year with y/y growth not much above 1% compared to nearly 3% a year earlier.
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Some of last years headwinds have abated, though probably not yet turned into tailwinds, for the emerging market stock markets.
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Bond funds, both Government and Corporate, produced healthy returns last quarter as yields fell and credit spreads narrowed.
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Writing a quarterly report about Commercial Property has become a bit like Groundhog Day, but in a nice way, with the ‘bricks and mortar’ property unit trusts consistently inching higher every month and last year was no exception.
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As a ‘risk on’ asset the oil price epitomises the great flip-flop that was the characteristic of financial markets last quarter.
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The US dollar had been the strongest of the major currencies in 2018 with the strongest economy, the tightest monetary policy and by far the highest interest rates.
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In the Q1 newsletter we wrote a ‘teaser’ article indicating that we would be launching an ethical range of portfolios, available to both discretionary and advisory clients.
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